Predicting the weather proves to be a challenging task. While we can anticipate an impending storm, the precise timing and the extent of its impact remain uncertain. Despite analyzing copious amounts of data and making forecasts, it’s evident that discerning the exact course of a storm remains an elusive endeavor. Likewise, forecasting an upcoming recession shares some similarities. It’s relatively straightforward to foresee an impending economic downturn, as it’s not…
Surprise, surprise, the Fed elected to hike rates 25bps today, in line with the market’s expectations. This marks the 11th hike this cycle and brings the upper bound of fed funds to 5.50%, the highest level in 22 years. Despite inflation cooling, the Fed has not seen a meaningful slowdown in hiring or economic growth that is generally associated with the tighter financial conditions needed to keep inflation moving towards…
The Fed delivered the expected ‘hawkish pause’ yesterday, keeping rates unchanged this month after hiking rates at each of its 10 prior meetings. But the committee does not believe the job is done, with the majority of members expecting at least two more rate increases this year if the economy and inflation do not cool significantly. This would put the upper bound of fed funds at 5.75%, the highest level…